Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
