European Union Presents an Invitation to the Ukrainian Nation, But Will It Ever Become a Member?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while commanding his nation amidst a war, is also chasing a vision for peacetime: securing EU accession for his country swiftly.
The persistent president is increasing demands on European Union governments to speed up the protracted accession process. He portrays the national struggle of his people as a battle "for the nation's future, the prospects for the country within the EU."
That aspiration of tens of millions of citizens gaining EU citizenship is, in theory, shared by the union itself. These days, hardly any meeting in Brussels ends without the country's inclusion being referred to as a "geopolitical necessity."
This language frames the nation's existence and the continent's long-term security as inseparable parts of the equation. However, for a long time following the year 2004 "big bang" that welcomed ten former eastern bloc states, there was zero desire for new members, especially not the large eastern nation. Putin's tanks altered the situation entirely – just a short time of the illegal 2022 full-scale attack, Ukraine had applied for, and received, "candidate country" standing. A year, EU governments took the historic step to open accession talks with a country at war, although with no a specific deadline. Neighbouring the Republic of Moldova, the ex-USSR state thought to be next in Putin's crosshairs, jumped to the front of the line along with Ukraine.
Last week, the EU's executive body released its official assessment of the state of play of ten applicant countries, and placed Ukraine and Moldova within the group of four frontrunners, together with Albania and Montenegro. The EU foreign policy chief stated it was a achievable target that this quartet could all be in the EU by the year 2030.
The country's positive verdict is objectively remarkable. Enemy airstrikes are devastating its energy grid regularly, its treasury is almost depleted and many millions of its citizens are displaced, metaphorically residing in other parts of Europe. Its negotiators are often physically in bunkers. However, in Brussels, representatives are upbeat about the massive reform effort being undertaken in Kyiv even with continued concerns about graft. Information of an reported scandal at Ukraine's state energy operator are still emerging. Even so, they claim, negotiations could be finalized by the end of 2028. Talks with small the Balkan states could be done by 2026 and the following year, in that order.
Major Hurdles Remain
However, there exists a stark contrast: the EU executive does not decide who gets in. The twenty-seven current member states hold that power, and they must vote by consensus through every phase. Furthermore, at least for now, the EU's notorious autocrat Hungary's prime minister is blocking the official opening of negotiations with Kyiv. And because its neighbor is grouped with the larger nation, it too is halted.
All eyes are on the polls in the central European country in the spring, could unseat the long-serving leader. But other member states with domestic political issues may be sheltering behind Hungary. With nationalist groups gaining strength in France, Germany and already in government elsewhere, the broader environment for the country's acceptance is daunting.
Analysts note a discrepancy between verbal support and real intentions. "I am not convinced that many nations in the Union truly desire Ukraine to be a full member, for different causes," states one close observer of the process. "Yet it is a great shame: because the EU would gain immensely by bringing in this nation."
Identifying the Obstacles?
The geopolitical argument for admitting the country may be increasingly pressing considering Putin's "hybrid war" on Europe, but considering its scale and intricacy, so are the diplomatic and financial obstacles. Even when negotiations are completed, approval by all the twenty-seven countries – several mandate public votes – is formally required for every new member. Although public support for the nation's admission is undoubtedly strong in Sweden, Finland and Denmark, a significant portion throughout the Union oppose it.
Far-right parties are increasing their influence and many of them are vehemently Eurosceptic and against expansion. With Marine Le Pen's nationalist National Rally potentially aiming for government in France in 2027, a referendum in the country on the candidate's membership would be a struggle. Even among pro-enlargement states, there is anxiety about the costs involved, given Ukraine's economic challenges and immense reconstruction needs. A bitter debate over whether to seize €140bn of frozen Russian assets to rescue Ukraine before it exhausts its funds in the spring is ongoing. Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, meanwhile, fear that their agricultural economies will be harmed if Ukraine, a major farming country and competitor, gains eligibility for agricultural support payments.
Enlargement in general, it is feared, could weaken instead of consolidating the Union, unless institutional changes are beforehand implemented to avoid paralysis in a club of 30-something nations. But such reform could take a long time.
Winning Support and Security Concerns
Officials in the EU capital may have innovative workarounds to the Hungarian leader's blockade such as "front-loading", where discussions could begin informally until Hungary's opposition is lifted.
Discussions are underway, also, of including strict new regulatory safeguards and lengthy probationary periods into new membership treaties to reassure sceptics. No one desires new members that on paper appear to operate the democratic norms, but who turn out to be "Trojan horses" for the bloc.
Public relations efforts and "messaging" to win the support of citizens in both the existing member states and the candidate states are planned. It is clear, however, that raising expectations and then leaving millions in uncertainty indefinitely carries risks. As the Moldova's president, Maia Sandu, who in the autumn overcame Kremlin meddling to score a impressive pro-EU election victory, warned last week: "Should we don't deliver in the coming years … then what will be the message to the people?"
Zelenskyy used an exclusive interview to highlight the risks of Russia going to war against another EU nation before the current conflict concludes. He further emphasized Ukraine's strength at a perilous moment, and his deep affection for his fellow Ukrainians. "I think that
