Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.